What the US aid freeze tells us about the struggles of Russian independent media

Editor’s note: this article is part of The Fix’s coverage of the impact of US aid halt on European media. You can read our previous stories and subscribe to our weekly newsletter to stay tuned for more.

In January 2025, US President Donald Trump decided to freeze billions of dollars allocated for aid projects, including over $268 million to support independent media worldwide – a move that sent shockwaves through the non-profit journalism sector.

Ukrainian media were hit the most, and other European countries have suffered as well. At the same time, either directly or indirectly, the freeze also impacted Russian media outlets operating abroad in opposition to the country’s invasion of Ukraine and the regime. Many organizations were forced into survival mode, with some already announcing they would halt operations. Even the largest media outlets with diversified income streams, such as the Latvia-based Meduza, have faced challenges as their revenue stream took a hit where they least expected.  Moreover, the situation has made them a target of mockery from pro-Kremlin officials and media, reinforcing the narrative that they serve the “enemy”.

And despite a recent announcement from the National Endowment for Democracy, a U.S. non-profit that channels state funds to support democracy around the world, that it has regained access to the halted funds, the ordeal has still exposed the vulnerability of independent Russian media in the current climate.

Navigating donors and proposals

Before Putin’s regime started restricting freedom of speech, Russian media, regardless of their stance, relied on a large commercial market driven by advertising aimed at hundreds of millions of Russian speakers – in Russia and beyond.

However, labels like “foreign agents” and “undesirable organisations” applied to critical outlets in the months building up to Russia’s full-scale invasion and in the aftermath, started scaring off advertisers and deterred individual donations or subscriptions, as supporting such outlets could be seen as compromising. 

These circumstances forced independent media to seek alternative income streams, including targeted crowdfunding campaigns, selling ads from companies outside Russia offering services for Russian expats, and offering additional services such as publishing books, organising events, or selling branded merchandise. After receiving initial support from various media freedom foundations to be able to relocate abroad, many organisations tried to reinstate commercial models they were used to operating within before, since they saw grant seeking as an unreliable and time-consuming approach for a media operation. “In our research, we spoke with one of the editors who said he received a certain support from USAID-related organisations after 15 attempts. And that’s a time-consuming grant. And then you have to also write reports that sometimes take more time than even writing grant applications,” says Russia media researcher Vasily Gatov.

Yet, the efforts did not bring the desired result. “By the end of 2024, it became clear that these monetisation strategies were insufficient to generate the necessary revenue for full self-sustainability,” notes Mikhail Komin, a Future Russia Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The freeze therefore only added insult to injury.

Grim prospects

Due to the sensitivity of the issue, it is difficult to determine exactly how much U.S. funding independent Russian media outlets stand to lose. However, CEPA’s Komin estimates the shortfall could amount to tens of millions of dollars per year – too large to be fully covered by EU-affiliated donors or private Russian funders.

Komin predicts that if the freeze lasts beyond three months, smaller Russian media outlets – especially those with regional or niche projects, such as human rights initiatives – would likely have to shut down, as they often rely on a single large donor. Medium-sized organisations could face a similar fate within half a year. Only major organisations with a diversified donor base and additional income streams would likely survive, but not without layoffs and cutbacks.

“If U.S. aid does not return to the Russian exiled sector in any form by the end of 2025, the sector will probably shrink by 40-50%,” Komin says. “This contraction will also have a cascading effect, where closures or reductions in some organisations will trigger further closures and downsizing in others.”

Readjusting ambitions

Is there any way Russian independent media outlets could survive on their own, without relying so heavily on the mercy of foreign governments and funds? 

While Gatov expects media outlets to cease operating and journalists to transfer their skills to other professions, if not for lack of vacancies because of burnout, he believes that some of the media that started as political outlets in exile could successfully serve large diasporas. However, this would require a readjustment of ambitions and how Russian media owners in exile see their potential markets. 

“It’s clearly kind of working in Berlin,” he says, giving OST-WEST TV – a Russian-language station that has been broadcasting from the city for nearly 30 years  – as an example. “I think it can work in places like Warsaw, Tbilisi, Prague. It should be scaled correctly,” he says. 

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