Like clockwork, Reuters Institute’s annual “Journalism, media, and technology trends and predictions” report for 2023 was published first thing in January.

It is full of actionable takeaways (this might be the year of the subscription bundle, AI everywhere), food for thought (why has LinkedIn become the most obvious alternative to Twitter) and noteworthy predictions (like Bloomberg News, more publishers will abandon programmatic advertising or significantly decrease its presence).

The author of the report, Nic Newman, a senior researcher at the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, has been publishing this report for over a decade. Reuters Institute started publishing it in 2016 on its website.

2023 vs. 2013: Predictions from 10 years ago tell us a new era is beginning

Before diving into this year’s main takeaways I thought it might be fun looking at this report’s edition from 10 years ago.

The big prediction of that report was a switch to mobile among audiences, and some of the biggest publishers like The Guardian or the BBC have really seen a higher mobile traffic that year. One of the predictions of the 2023 report is breakthrough for artificial intelligence and its application for journalism.

Another big prediction from 10 years ago was the social revolution with platforms taking reigns and becoming the biggest driver of traffic. 10 years later, the report predicts a further decline of the first generation of social networks with the likes of TikTok becoming the new thing.

In 2013, live news coverage (live pages, live streams and live workflows) were predicted to become a key focus in newsrooms, meaning outlets tried to produce as much as possible news as soon as possible.

Turn the page a decade to the future, and you suddenly see news avoidance becoming an increasing issue across the aisle. Publishers are setting up units to produce positive content.

Also, newsletters and podcasts are top of mind as this kind of on-demand content seems to be working the best in 2023 for acquiring and keeping paying subscribers (another top priority for most news leaders).

The 2023 edition of the report truly feels like an end of an era and beginning of something new

Some of those predictions could have been written now and be true:

A Facebook backlash over privacy.
More publishers in 2013 will also experiment with events as a way of driving new revenue from niche expertise.
Within a year, we’ll still be asking the question – apps or mobile web? It’s both for a while longer.
We’ll see more experimentation with short form video.
Further cost rationalisation across the media in 2013 as market realities drag down the offline and online advertising economies.
Expect a stellar year for online retail partly driven by mobile and apps.

And some that were either early or kind of make you smile today:

Facebook and Twitter offer ‘paid for services’ to consumers.
Take off for fun photo and video sharing services like Tout and also SnapChat and Poke (where messages self-destruct on viewing) especially with the young.
The Apple TV will launch late in the year with a screen size of over 42” and a price tag of around $1500.

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Key takeaways, predictions and trends for 2023

Below are some of the key takeaways from the report, although I encourage everyone to read the whole paper, as it is not long, has a tone of valuable data and might spark some ideas for future experiments.

1) The economic crisis is affecting legacy and digital-born publishers alike

Less than half of news publishers are confident about the year ahead. 2022 has seen layoffs not only in tech, but also in journalism, and this will likely continue in 2023.

European publishers have seen a worrying decline in print-based subscriptions partly linked to breakdown in distribution networks and higher levels of churn overall, the report says.

Prediction: any publication that still has a heavy dependence on print circulation or advertising revenue is likely to run into severe difficulties this year.

More from The Fix: If you properly welcome new users and subscribers, they’ll stay longer. Here’s how to design your onboarding experience

2) Subscription will grow, albeit slowly; focus will be on communication the value and retention

Key focus for many publishers will be looking to hang on to new subscribers gained during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and COVID-19, Newman writes. Publishers nowadays routinely offer very low introductory prices that last in some cases the whole first year (NY Times, Washington Post).

A Toolkits report examined last year in June the 100 most popular subscription sites among US audiences and found that 75% offered either discounted or free trials to new subscribers.

And with many of these subscribers hitting a period of renewal to full prices, retention strategies will face an increased pressure on keeping most of them subscribed.

Another trend will see publishers talk more about their journalistic values. Subscription outlets to be more successful will not only communicate a quid pro quo (access to paywalled content), but also talk more about their mission and the quality of their journalism linked to specific issues like the war in Ukraine and the climate emergency.

3) The year of the bundle

Not just the NY Times, but also European publishers such as Le Figaro or Aftenposten offer now all-access bundles including either access to cooking, games, sports or regional content.

Bundles are a great way for publishers to give their biggest fans extra features in exchange for a higher subscription price. Another benefit according to NYT CEO Meredith Kopit Levien is that “bundled subscribers” pay more over time and are less likely to cancel.

More from The Fix: Bundling ideas for news publishers. Make your subscription more valuable, generate more revenue

4) Ecommerce & platform funding up, native advertising and events down

From the chart above, it’s clear what most of the media leaders are seeing as opportunities to diversify their revenue: ecommerce and funding from platforms.

As the report put it: A third (33%) now expect to get significant revenue from tech platforms for content licensing (or innovation), significantly up on last year, reflecting the fruits of multi-year deals negotiated in some markets with a number of big publishers, often in the context of policies championed by those same publishers being introduced or considered by governments.

On the other hand, native advertising, championed by the likes of BuzzFeed has seen the biggest drop in importance for news publishers in the last three years, together with the events business that was hit hard by the Covid-19 pandemic and will likely take a few years to regain trust among publishers.

5) News avoidance is top of mind for 72% of news leaders. Most are countering with the increase of solutions & explanatory journalism

Growing news avoidance among audiences, a worrying trend that the 2022 Digital News Report showcased, seemingly keeps many newsrooms up at night as almost three quarters of leaders surveyed by the report said they are deeply worried about it.

Solutions and constructive journalism do seem to be picking up momentum with publishers as they experiment with approaches countering news fatigue.

More from The Fix: Five manageable ways to introduce solutions journalism to your newsroom

6) Publishers try different strategies to improve climate coverage

Around two-thirds (63%) of news executives now rate their own coverage as good. Publishers are using two main approaches to improve their coverage of climate change.

Almost half of them created a climate team to raise the topic’s profile. And 44% recognise that elements of the climate story need to be part of wider coverage across the newsroom, so they have taken measures to ensure climate is considered by all beats.

7) Another pivot to short form video

Seems like history keeps repeating itself, and more than half of the surveyed news leaders see TikTok as a platform they will be putting more effort into. The Chinese-originated entertainment platform is fascinating on many levels, especially how quickly it was able to take over the incumbents.

Yet, in the US and also EU governmental officials have been calling for more scrutiny of the platform’s ties to its Chinese owner ByteDance. Just in December, Forbes revealed they found out TikTok had spied on its journalists to find leakers from the company.

For newsrooms it makes sense to go to a platform that has many young users. I tend to agree you have to be there nowadays, but as a journalism industry we have been here: a platform promises access to young audiences, offers gigantic reach and fails to deliver on sustainability promises and monetization features (sounds familiar?).

With many deprioritizing Facebook and Twitter, Google search seems like the only choice for a semi-reliable traffic driver. More than half are looking to put more effort into their SEO.

More from The Fix: Your newsroom probably needs a YouTube specialist

8) LinkedIn is seen as the most likely replacement for Twitter

Not Mastodon, not Post or Hive, Telegram or Instagram, but LinkedIn. Microsoft’s social network has been slowly but surely adding features that make it almost an obvious choice after many lost faith in Elon Musk’s Twitter direction.

Both Facebook and Twitter discontinued their own newsletter platforms, but LinkedIn kept developing it and integrated it deeper into the network, which makes it not only easy to use, but surprisingly efficient in gaining followers for your LinkedIn newsletter.

That’s just one of the features the platform offers. Thanks to a program called LinkedIn for Journalists, it offers yearly Premium subscription for free to newsmakers.

9) Podcasts, digital audio and newsletters give the most hope

The majority of publishers say that they will be focusing on podcasts and other digital audio formats (72%) and email newsletters (69%).

It’s not hard to see why podcasts and newsletters are getting more love from news leaders the second year running. Newsletters are a reliable tool for generating engagement with subscribers and delivering content to a place everyone spends a lot of time –– inbox.

Podcasts on the other hand have become a kind of retention tool for subscribers. Many newsrooms have reported their subscribers list podcasts as one of the reasons they stay subscribed to the outlet.

More and more publishers are offering audio articles and with the help of AI and neural voices the experience is more natural than it used to be. Some publishers are even using synthetic voices of either their own journalists or famous figures to read the text.

These features have become much more accessible for even smaller outlets. Studies have shown that having an audio version of the article increases time spent on the website, and audiences return more often.

10) Breakthrough year for artificial intelligence and its application for journalism

Seems like AI is going to play a big role for newsrooms in 2023. The emergence of ChatGPT by OpenAI and accessibility of generative AI tools such as Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, DALL-E will on one hand challenge the fact checkers; on the other hand they can serve as a big help for journalists.

Even though the report found most publishers using AI mostly to help with recommendations, we are already seeing journalists experimenting with AI-generated videos or visuals to tell stories about war in Ukraine or others using ChatGPT-based tools to summarise long texts.

AI transcription tools are now routine in newsrooms, with Danish digital-born outlet Zetland developing a speech to text transcription service Good Tape built on top of OpenAI technology. The outlet is currently offering it for free.

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